VORP

I have already begun my preparations for this fantasy baseball season. I currently compete on www.sandbox.com where we use a head-to head format and a points scoring mechanism. Points system for offense is as follows:

1B - 1 pt
2B - 2 pt
3B - 3 pt
HR - 4 pt
RBI - 1 pt
Run - 1 pt
SB - 2 pt
CS - -1 pt
K - -1 pt

I am currently in the process of trying to figure out how to properly value players in an 8-person league. My recent thought has been to calculate a sort of value over replacement player (VORP) formula for fantasy players. The question I have is whether or not to include all players at the position or only players that are viable fantasy options. Also, another question is whether or not I should use my own forecasts for my 2009 projections, use historical numbers (ie. average over last three years or something) or an "experts" projections such as Bill James, etc.

Maybe I'll use all three. I'll keep you posted